National Bureau of Statistics: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index Declined in February

On March 4, 2026, the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center and the China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers' Index. In this regard, Huo Lihui, Chief Statistician of the National Bureau of Statistics Service Industry Survey Center, provided an interpretation.

In February, affected by factors such as the Spring Festival holiday, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the non-manufacturing Business Activity Index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month.

I. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index Declined

In February, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, with the level of prosperity declining compared to the previous month. Historical data show that the PMI for the month in which the Spring Festival falls often experiences some fluctuations. This year, in particular, the Spring Festival holiday was extended and entirely fell in mid-to-late February, which affected corporate production and operations to some extent, leading to an overall decline in manufacturing market activity.

(1) Both Production and Demand Slowed. The production index and new orders index were 49.6% and 48.6%, respectively, down 1.0 and 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing production and market demand. By sector, the production index and new orders index for industries such as agricultural and food processing, and computer, communication, and electronic equipment remained above the critical point, with the level of prosperity in production and demand continuing to expand. In contrast, both indices for industries such as textiles, apparel, and accessories, and automobiles remained below the critical point, indicating weaker market activity.

(2) PMI for Large Enterprises Continued to Expand. The PMI for large enterprises was 51.5%, up 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that production and operations in large enterprises continued to expand. Medium and small enterprises were more significantly affected by the Spring Festival holiday, with PMIs of 47.5% and 44.8%, respectively, down 1.2 and 2.6 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a decline in their level of prosperity.

(3) Growth Momentum in High-Tech Manufacturing Continued to Emerge. The PMI for high-tech manufacturing was 51.5%, remaining in the expansion zone and significantly higher than the overall manufacturing level, indicating favorable development trends in related industries. The PMI for the consumer goods industry was 48.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, showing a recovery in the level of prosperity. The PMIs for equipment manufacturing and high-energy-consuming industries were 49.8% and 47.8%, respectively, down 0.3 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in their level of prosperity.

(4) Corporate Expectations Improved. The production and business activity expectation index was 53.2%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that manufacturing enterprises have increased confidence in market development after the Spring Festival. By sector, the production and business activity expectation indices for industries such as general equipment, and railway, ship, aerospace equipment were all in the high prosperity zone above 56.0%, indicating that related enterprises are more optimistic about recent industry development.

II. Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index Slightly Rebounded

In February, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating some improvement in the overall level of prosperity in the non-manufacturing sector.

(1) Service Industry Prosperity Level Rebounded. The service industry business activity index was 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. By sector, driven by the Spring Festival holiday effect, industries related to residents' travel and consumption saw rapid growth in business volume. Among them, the business activity indices for industries such as accommodation, catering, culture, sports, and entertainment were all in the high prosperity zone above 60.0%, while the business activity indices for retail and air transport rose to above 52.0%. At the same time, the business activity indices for industries such as capital market services and real estate remained low, indicating subdued market activity. In terms of market expectations, the service industry business activity expectation index was 55.8%, remaining in the high prosperity zone, indicating that service industry enterprises remain optimistic about recent market development.

Affected by factors such as the concentrated return of enterprise employees during the Spring Festival holiday and the suspension of some construction projects, the construction industry business activity index fell to 48.2%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued decline in the level of prosperity in the construction industry. In terms of market expectations, the construction industry business activity expectation index was 50.9%, up 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, returning above the critical point, indicating that construction industry enterprises have regained some confidence in future industry development.

III. Composite PMI Output Index Declined

In February, the composite PMI output index was 49.5%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall production and business activities of enterprises in China slowed compared to the previous month. The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index, which constitute the composite PMI output index, were 49.6% and 49.5%, respectively.