Weak crude fails to stop PX and PTA strength; concentrated maintenance pushes operating rates to a ten-year low

Recently, international crude oil has fluctuated downward due to the easing of US-Iran negotiations and the decline in geopolitical risk premiums. Brent crude oil briefly fell below $95/ton, forming a significant bearish suppression on the cost side. However, the upstream PX and PTA physical and futures markets in the polyester industry chain have moved independently, with open interest increasing and volume expanding against the trend.

The core driver comes from the fact that leading domestic PTA and PX enterprises have centrally entered their annual major maintenance cycles. The industry operating rate has fallen to the lowest range in nearly a decade. PTA social inventory has been de-stocked for 6 consecutive weeks. Physical circulation has tightened, and the basis has risen significantly. The supply and demand fundamentals have completely offset the drag of falling crude oil, raising the cost center of the industrial chain.

In terms of market performance, main funds for the CZCE PTA contract and the DCE PX futures contract have increased their positions for consecutive days. Bullish funds are positioning around the logic of supply contraction. In the physical market, the basis for East China PTA spot against the main futures contract rose to a high of 190 yuan/ton, shifting from a discount to a deep premium compared to before the start of maintenance in April, highlighting the tightness of physical goods.

Statistical data shows that as of the end of May, the average operating rate of the domestic PTA industry was only 58.3%~59.25%, a year-on-year decline of 13.5 percentage points, refreshing the low for the same period in nearly ten years. In May, domestic PTA total production was 5.2708 million tons, a decrease of 682,600 tons month-on-month. On the raw material side, the overall domestic operating rate of PX was 80.83%, a decline of 7.61% month-on-month. Centralized maintenance directly compressed the effective supply of the entire industry chain.

I. Details of Maintenance by Major Domestic PTA Producers (April-June 2026)

This round of centralized PTA maintenance is divided into two categories: annual planned maintenance and passive temporary shutdowns due to raw material shortages. From April to June, the cumulative maintenance capacity exceeded 19.5 million tons, accounting for over 20% of the national total PTA capacity. The specific maintenance list is as follows:

II. List of Centralized Maintenance by PX Refineries (Supporting Contraction of PTA Raw Material End)

As the direct upstream raw material for PTA, domestic refineries simultaneously entered the peak season for spring maintenance in the second quarter. Several million-ton-level refining and chemical units have shut down. The tightening of PX supply supports PTA prices from the cost end and further limits the room for PTA plants to increase loads and resume production:

III. Inventory and Basis: Six Consecutive Weeks of De-stocking, Physical Tightness Boosts Basis

The most intuitive data for supply contraction is reflected in inventory. Since the centralized start of PTA maintenance in early April, national PTA social inventory has achieved de-stocking for 6 consecutive weeks. Physical inventory in East China main ports has continued to fall from the April high. Warrant data fell from the high of 200,000 lots at the end of April to 159,600 lots in early June, a drop of over 20%, with circulating physical resources continuously tightening.

The physical basis also turned from weak to strong synchronously: when the maintenance cycle started on April 9, PTA spot was at a discount of 8 yuan/ton to the 05 contract. By mid-to-late May, spot was at a premium of 187~190 yuan/ton to the September contract. Processing fees recovered to 480~500 yuan/ton, a recent high. Although downstream polyester operating rates maintained a year-on-year low of around 81%, and Jiangsu-Zhejiang weaving operating rates were only 50.3% with the terminal textile industry in a traditional off-season, the combination of rigid restocking for physical goods and scarce circulating goods made physical prices significantly more resilient than the disk, forming an independent market pattern of "strong physical goods, futures following up, crude oil weak."

IV. Institution Interpretation: Supply and Demand is King, Short-term Trend Still Resilient

Pang Chunyan, Chief Chemical Analyst at SDIC Futures, stated that the core logic of this counter-trend rise in PX and PTA is supply contraction > cost weakness bearishness. There is no new PX or PTA capacity put into operation in the first half of 2026 in China, and centralized major overhaul of existing units has formed a phased supply-demand gap. Even if crude oil weakness brings down costs, the physical premium brought by low inventory and maintenance production cuts is sufficient to offset the cost bearishness.

Chen Dong, Analyst at Baocheng Futures, added that in June, multiple sets of PTA units such as Fuhai Chuang and Zhongtai will continue maintenance, making it difficult for supply to recover quickly in the full month, and the rhythm of PTA de-stocking will likely continue. Regarding PX, the maintenance cycles for units like Hainan Refining & Chemical and Zhongjin are relatively long, so the tight balance pattern at the raw material end continues, and cost support for the industry chain remains. However, risk points are also clear: in July, centralized maintenance units will successively enter the restart window, and the marginal supply of PTA and PX will increase. Coupled with the continued drag of the downstream textile off-season on polyester demand, the fundamentals may shift from tight to loose, limiting the upside room for prices.

V. Market Outlook

In the short term, early to mid-June is still in a period of intensive maintenance. The fundamentals of tight supply and de-stocking for PTA and PX remain unchanged, making prices easy to rise and hard to fall. Entering late June to July, multiple large units such as Hengli Huizhou, Formosa Plastics, and Yangzi Petrochemical will restart centrally, and the industry operating rate will gradually recover. Coupled with cost disturbances from low-level fluctuations in crude oil, PTA and PX will shift from unilateral strength to high-level oscillation, and the physical basis will likely fall back gradually from highs. The degree of recovery in terminal weaving orders will become the key variable determining the trend of the polyester industry chain in the second half of the year.