Goldman Sachs lowers US economic growth forecast

According to a report by the US financial media MarketWatch on the 12th, in light of the negative impact of the ongoing Middle East conflict, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research has revised its 2026 US economic growth forecast from the previously projected 2.8% down to 2.6%.

Goldman Sachs economists stated that if the Middle East conflict persists longer, the US economic growth rate faces the risk of further decline.

Goldman Sachs expects that the US Personal Consumption Expenditures price index will rise by 2.9% year-on-year in December this year, significantly higher than the previously forecasted 2.1%; the US unemployment rate is projected to peak at 4.6% in the fourth quarter. The US Federal Reserve is anticipated to implement interest rate cuts in September and December, whereas previous predictions had indicated cuts in June and September.

Goldman Sachs economists noted that the primary transmission channel of the Middle East conflict to the US economy is oil prices, currently forecasting the average price of London Brent crude futures to be $98 per barrel in March and April, which is 40% higher than the 2025 average price.