Shipping Volume Plummets by 95%, Strait of Hormuz Becomes Global Energy "Chokepoint"

The US-Iran conflict continues to escalate, severely disrupting the global energy transport key chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz, with commercial vessel traffic plummeting dramatically, forcing a restructuring of the energy transport landscape.

Latest data from market intelligence firm Kepler shows that from March 1 to 16:00 GMT on March 23, only 144 commercial vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz, a sharp 95% decrease compared to before the conflict erupted on February 28. Among the limited number of transiting vessels, 91 were oil and gas tankers, with most heading east out of the strait. Data from the US Navy-led "Joint Maritime Information Center" confirms the channel's usual busy state: before the conflict, the strait saw an average of about 138 vessels passing through daily.

AFP reported on March 23 that all vessels passing through the strait that day had chosen the northern route north of Iran's Larak Island, which has been approved by the Iranian government. The UK's Lloyd's List tracked over 20 vessels using this route on the same day, which closely aligns with the "safe corridor" designated by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The IRGC can rely on Larak Island to visually verify passing vessels.

Supply constraints have directly triggered adjustments in global energy transport routes. Data from the international freight information platform MarineTraffic shows that since March 3, approximately 11 liquefied natural gas (LNG) tankers originally bound for Europe have diverted to Asia. Attracted by spot price advantages, Asia has become the primary destination for additional shipping capacity.

Analysts at JPMorgan pointed out that among the currently monitorable oil transports through the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian oil accounts for as much as 98%, with Iran's daily crude oil shipments maintaining around 1.3 million barrels in early March.

As the only outlet from the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz is considered the lifeline of global energy: over a quarter of the world's seaborne oil and about one-fifth of liquefied natural gas (LNG) transports rely on this passage. Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that in 2024, the strait handled approximately 20 million barrels of oil products per day. This ongoing shipping disruption is continuously unsettling the stability of global energy markets and supply chains.