SunSirs: A Comprehensive Look at the 2026 Container Shipping Market Dynamics

The spot market has entered the peak season ahead of schedule, and the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has stopped falling and rebounded.

According to the latest data released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on April 30th, the SCFI index rose by 36.14 points to 1911.4 points last week, with a weekly increase of 1.93%. Not only did this end the previous two-week decline, but also the freight rates of the four major long-distance routes all rose.

Last week, the freight rate on the Far East to the West Coast of the United States increased by $136 to $2,722 per FEU, a weekly increase of 5.26%; the freight rate on the Far East to the East Coast of the United States increased by $121 to $3,691 per FEU, a weekly increase of 3.39%; the freight rate on the Far East to Europe increased by $24 to $1,521 per TEU, a weekly increase of 1.6%; the freight rate on the Far East to the Mediterranean increased by $10 to $2,430 per TEU, a weekly increase of 0.41%.

While in the near-sea route, the freight rate from Far East to Kansai in Japan is unchanged from the previous week at USD 316 per TEU; the freight rate from Far East to Kanto in Japan is down by USD 1 per TEU from the previous week at USD 318 per TEU; the freight rate from Far East to Southeast Asia is down by USD 4 per TEU from the previous week at USD 563 per TEU; the freight rate from Far East to South Korea is down by USD 2 per TEU from the previous week at USD 161 per TEU.

Industry players said that several freight forwarders have updated their spot market rates from May 1 to 14, with the US route supported by rising fuel costs and adjustments to flight supply, with the west coast of the United States at about $2,600 to $2,800 per FEU and the east coast at about $3,600 to $3,800 per FEU, maintaining high levels; the European route saw a small increase of about $200 by container shipping companies at the beginning of May, with the rate per FEU coming to about $2,100 to $2,300.

Around the May Day holiday, most congestion companies ensure load factors through price stability; as work resumes after the holiday, it is expected that cargo volume will start to heat up in mid-May, combined with the adjustment of shipping routes by the shipping alliance in April, resulting in a natural reduction in flights in May, supporting the plan to increase prices in the second half of the month.

The European route is one of the focus points for the latest push to raise freight rates, as the European route has a similar voyage to the US East Coast route, but currently the freight rates on the US East Coast route are much higher than those on the European route. Container shipping companies hope to push the freight rates on the European route to exceed $3,000 per FEU by taking advantage of the volume release starting in mid-May and the congestion in multiple ports. On the other hand, the freight rates on the US route are maintained at a high level, and it is reported that container shipping companies plan to push the freight rates on the US West Coast and US East Coast routes to exceed $3,000 and $4,000 per FEU respectively in mid-May.

Looking ahead, Alphaliner data shows that the market demand growth rate in 2026 is 2.5%, the capacity supply growth rate is 3.8%, the growth rate of ship supply is the lowest in recent years, and the delay in the return of ships due to the Red Sea diversion has also slowed the release of capacity again. Coupled with the intensification of the supply chain instability due to the Middle East war, there is a phenomenon of advance orders for peak season orders from customers. Although the market is concerned about the impact of high oil prices on inflation, leading to a decrease in consumer demand, the Trump administration's push for tax cuts also helps to boost consumer spending power. The positive effect of the peak season in the second and third quarters is still optimistic.

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