From Saudi Arabia's plunge to Kuwait's halving, the Middle East oil supply chain faces a comprehensive impact.

Influenced by the ongoing escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, oil export routes in the Persian Gulf are obstructed, and crude oil production in Saudi Arabia has suffered a significant decline, with April production falling to its lowest level since the 1990 Gulf War. This has driven a notable overall drop in OPEC production, causing global fuel prices to rise in response and further amplifying the risk of global economic recession.

According to a monthly report leaked from the OPEC Secretariat, data reported by Saudi Arabia to the organization shows that the country's daily crude oil production was further reduced by 651,000 barrels in April, falling back to 6.316 million barrels per day. Since February of this year, the cumulative decline in Saudi crude oil production has reached 42%, marking a rare low not seen in 36 years. The data also disclosed that Saudi Arabia's market crude oil supply excluding stock build for the period was 6.879 million barrels per day, slightly higher than the actual production scale.

Continued geopolitical conflicts are disrupting Persian Gulf oil shipping routes, which has not only severely impacted Saudi production capacity but also caused a simultaneous sharp decline in crude oil output in multiple OPEC members such as the UAE and Iraq. Secondary source data from external consultancies and media statistics indicate that overall OPEC daily crude oil production plummeted by 1.727 million barrels in April, bringing the total down to 18.98 million barrels; Saudi Arabia alone contributed nearly half of this reduction. According to secondary sources, Saudi Arabia's actual daily production was 6.768 million barrels, slightly higher than its officially declared figure.

Among member countries, Kuwait was the second most severely impacted after Saudi Arabia. Its daily crude oil production in April was nearly cut in half, maintaining a scale of only 600,000 barrels, and current capacity is less than one-quarter of pre-conflict levels. It is worth noting that both Saudi Arabia and the UAE have established alternative oil pipelines via the Red Sea, which can bypass the obstructed Persian Gulf routes to divert crude oil exports, thereby offsetting the impact of the war to a certain extent. Meanwhile, other Gulf countries lack alternative transport routes, resulting in more severe suppression of production and exports.

At the same time, the internal landscape of OPEC is undergoing changes, with the UAE previously announcing its plan to withdraw from OPEC in May, ending its nearly 60-year membership. According to the organization's bylaws, its formal withdrawal process will continue until January 1, 2027. Market analysis indicates that the UAE's determination to "leave the group" stems primarily from long-standing game-theoretic disagreements with Saudi Arabia over crude oil production quotas, compounded by differences in regional political stances, making the conflict between the two parties difficult to reconcile.

Expectations on the demand side have also been lowered, with OPEC cutting its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast from 1.4 million barrels per day to 1.2 million barrels per day. Even after the adjustment, this forecast remains higher than that of other industry institutions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) released a more pessimistic monthly report during the same period, predicting that global oil demand will shrink by 420,000 barrels per day this year, potentially marking the largest demand decline since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The misalignment of supply and demand patterns has further increased uncertainty in the global energy market.