SunSirs: Acrylamide: Reshaping Global Landscape, Stable Domestic Supply & Demand, Prices Fluctuate at High Levels

Currently, the international acrylamide market has entered a phase of structural reshaping. This period is characterized by the simultaneous contraction of overseas production capacity and the intensification of trade barriers, leading to a global concentration of production capacity in Asia. Consequently, the market share of Chinese products in the international arena is steadily increasing, although competition remains fierce within the high-end segments. In the domestic market, supply remains stable, supported by high raw material prices and steady downstream demand. As a result, acrylamide prices continue to fluctuate at elevated levels, placing pressure on industry profit margins.

I. Export Data: Q1 Volume Rises, Prices Stable; Growing Reliance on Overseas Markets

According to customs data, the acrylamide industry chain demonstrated strong export performance during the first quarter (January–March) of 2026. In Q1, cumulative acrylamide exports reached 28,000 tons—a year-on-year increase of 12.5%. This compares to 24,900 tons exported during the same period last year, when the average export price stood at approximately US$1,350 per ton. Exports for the month of March alone totaled 10,500 tons, up 15.3% year-on-year. Export destinations were primarily concentrated in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, accounting for over 70% of the total volume. Conversely, exports to European and North American markets declined by 8.2% year-on-year due to the impact of trade barriers, hindering the export of high-end products to these regions. Overall, exports have emerged as a crucial pillar of support for the domestic market, driven by steady growth in overseas demand.

II. Recent Capacity: Total Capacity Steadily Expands; Operating Rates Remain High in May

Domestic acrylamide production capacity currently stands at approximately 912,000 tons per year, accounting for roughly 36.8% of the global total—firmly securing China's position as the world's largest producer by capacity. In 2026, new capacity additions have been concentrated in the Shandong and Jiangsu regions, while outdated capacity is being gradually phased out, leading to a continuous optimization of the industry's capacity structure. In May, the industry's operating rate reached approximately 82%, a 2-percentage-point increase from April, ensuring an ample market supply. On the international front, high-cost overseas production facilities continue to shut down, resulting in a contraction of global supply and further highlighting the competitive advantage of China's production capacity.

III. Price Trends: Fluctuating at High Levels; Volatility Narrows

Throughout 2026, acrylamide prices have followed a trend characterized by "fluctuations at high levels, with a steady upward bias." During the first quarter, prices remained within the range of 12,000–12,500 RMB/ton; after April, driven by rising raw material costs, prices continued their upward trajectory. As of May 14, mainstream market prices for acrylamide stood at 12,800–13,000 RMB/ton—an increase of 300 RMB/ton (or 2.4%) compared to early April. The primary drivers behind these price fluctuations were the rising cost of the raw material acrylonitrile, stable downstream demand, and tight supply conditions; market transactions were largely driven by essential demand, and traders demonstrated a strong willingness to hold firm on pricing.

IV. Upstream and Downstream Pricing: High Raw Material Costs Provide Support; Sulfuric Acid Costs Rise

Upstream raw material—acrylonitrile—continued to fluctuate at high levels. On May 14, the SunSirs benchmark price for acrylonitrile was 10,633.33 RMB/ton, representing a 0.95% increase compared to the beginning of the month (10,533.33 RMB/ton).

As acrylonitrile accounts for 50%–70% of acrylamide production costs, it provides significant cost support. The price of sulfuric acid—a key auxiliary production material—remained firm at high levels; on May 14, the SunSirs benchmark price for sulfuric acid was 1,862.50 RMB/ton, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 120%, which has resulted in a slight uptick in production costs. Downstream demand for polyacrylamide remained steady; on May 14, the SunSirs benchmark price for polyacrylamide was 14,200.00 RMB/ton, unchanged from the start of the month.

Essential demand from sectors such as water treatment and oil extraction remained stable, with downstream buyers primarily procuring acrylamide on an "as-needed" basis.

V. Future Outlook: High-Level Fluctuations Expected; Tight Supply-Demand Balance to Persist

Looking ahead, the acrylamide market is expected to maintain a pattern of high-level fluctuations through May and June 2026. On the supply side, production capacity is expanding steadily, and operating rates remain high, resulting in moderate supply pressure. On the demand side, downstream demand for polyacrylamide remains stable, overseas export growth is robust, and essential domestic demand provides strong support. On the cost side, acrylonitrile prices continue to trade at high levels while sulfuric acid prices remain firm, ensuring that cost-side support for acrylamide prices remains undiminished. Overall, in the short term, the price range for acrylamide is expected to hover between 12,700 and 13,200 RMB per ton, characterized primarily by high-level volatility. In the medium to long term—driven by stabilizing global demand and the optimization of industry structure—the central price level is projected to trend steadily upward, with a tight supply-demand balance at elevated price levels likely to persist for an extended period.

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