SunSirs: Raw Materials Stable; China PA66 Market Experiences Slight Recent Decline

Recently, the PA66 market has exhibited a trend of slight decline following a period of high-level fluctuation. According to data from SunSirs, the benchmark price stood at 23,666.67 RMB/ton on May 8; by May 14, it had dropped to 22,666.67 RMB/ton—a decrease of 3.55% compared to the beginning of the month (23,500.00 RMB/ton)—marking a shift in the short-term trend from upward to downward. Current prices sit within the upper-to-mid range of the one-year statistical cycle, having retreated approximately 2,400 RMB/ton from the one-year high.

II. Analysis of Causes

On the cost side, regarding adipic acid: prices surged by over 50% in the first quarter; however, since April, the market has shifted to narrow-range fluctuation, with declines reaching up to 2,000 RMB/ton during certain periods, resulting in marginally weaker cost support. Although hexamethylenediamine saw a significant surge at the beginning of the year (with bulk prices in East China rising from 16,300 RMB/ton to 28,000 RMB/ton), its upward momentum has recently slowed, diminishing its driving force on PA66 prices. While energy-related price premiums persist—making it difficult for the short-term cost center to shift downward—raw materials as a whole have entered a period of adjustment.

On the supply side, imports have decreased, leading to a tight spot market supply. Manufacturers and traders currently hold low inventory levels and exhibit a strong reluctance to sell, thereby providing a certain degree of price support.

On the demand side, downstream industries—such as textiles—show low acceptance of high prices. They have generally adopted a strategy of placing "small orders based on rigid demand" and "purchasing only as needed." Consequently, large orders are scarce, trading activity is sluggish, and high prices are dampening operating rates, creating a stalemate characterized by "supplier control versus demand suppression."

III. Market Outlook

Looking ahead, the PA66 market is expected to remain in a state of *high-level fluctuation* in the short term; the likelihood of significant, unidirectional price surges or crashes is low. Price movements will depend heavily on changes in raw material costs and the pace of recovery in downstream orders. If demand shows no significant improvement, high prices may perpetuate a situation where prices are high but trading volume remains low.

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