Five consecutive increases: latest MAP (Monoammonium Phosphate) benchmark price soars to 4,200 yuan/ton

On the evening of May 29, the China Phosphate and Compound Fertilizer Industry Association released the latest ex-factory guiding price for Monoammonium Phosphate (MAP). The ex-factory price for 55% powdered MAP in Central China was raised by 350 yuan/ton, bringing the quoted price to 4200 yuan/ton. The implementation of this increase marks the 5th round of price adjustments since the industry guiding price mechanism was established in May 2025. It was implemented against a backdrop of a sharp surge in raw material costs, sustained deep industry losses, and low industry operating rates, becoming a core focus of recent attention in the phosphorus and ammonium industry.

In mid-to-late May 2025, the guiding price for MAP was officially introduced. The initial intention of the system was to stabilize the supply of the phosphate fertilizer market and smooth out product price fluctuations. In the initial phase of implementation, it effectively stabilized the domestic MAP market, with market prices running smoothly.

However, upstream raw material costs subsequently rose continuously. Influenced by the global supply and demand pattern of bulk commodities and geopolitical disturbances, sulfur prices surged all the way to hit a historical high. The production cost of MAP was continuously raised, and the entire industry has since fallen into an operational dilemma of rising raw material prices, lagging adjustments in finished product prices, and widening corporate losses year by year. Since 2025, the industry has experienced widespread losses for more than a year.

Looking at the details of previous guiding price adjustments, since the launch of the first round of price adjustments on May 18, 2025, the MAP guiding price has undergone 5 rounds of increases. Although the 3850 yuan/ton level had no official document, it was generally referenced and executed in actual market circulation; as of the implementation of the latest price adjustment on May 29, the guiding price for 55% powdered MAP in Central China has cumulatively increased by 850 yuan/ton from the initial 3350 yuan/ton. In contrast, on the cost side, the unit price of sulfur cumulatively increased by 4860 yuan/ton during the same period, translating into a cumulative increase of 2085 yuan/ton in the comprehensive production cost of MAP. The magnitude of the product price increase far lagged behind the increase in raw material costs. Calculated based on current external raw material costs, the theoretical loss per ton in the industry is approaching 1500 yuan, and the trend of industry losses is still deepening.

Details of Previous MAP Guiding Price Adjustments

During the peak spring fertilization season, domestic supply-guarantee phosphorus and ammonium enterprises fully implemented supply guarantee tasks, shipping goods at low prices and concessions to ensure agricultural supply, which further compressed the profit space of the entire industry. At this stage, the problem on the raw material side has not yet been alleviated. High spot prices for sulfur combined with a shortage of supply mean that the parity-priced sulfur from the "Three Major Oil Companies" is mostly in liquid form. Restricted by transportation radius, it is difficult to transport in large quantities to phosphate fertilizer production plants, and most production enterprises have insufficient incoming raw materials. Dragged down by the raw material shortage, industry operating rates continue to decline. On May 28, the capacity utilization rate of the MAP industry was only 44.53%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month. Small and medium-sized manufacturers without their own raw material support have ceased production one after another, and leading supply-guarantee enterprises are also forced to operate at low loads.

The demand side is also under significant pressure. The overall market sentiment for downstream compound fertilizers is depressed. The willingness to stock up for the summer fertilizer market is weak, and the procurement demand for fertilizer use by terminal farmers has been slow to start. Most domestic production enterprises operate on a "produce based on sales" model, and factories in many regions have actively reduced loads or even suspended production waiting for orders. Only a few enterprises in parts of Hubei and Henan have slightly increased production to stock up. The market generally anticipates that autumn fertilizer demand will be postponed to concentrate between late July and September, so the demand side is unlikely to form positive support in the short term.

Major Domestic Manufacturers and Capacity

Domestic MAP capacity is concentrated in provinces such as Hubei, Sichuan, Yunnan, and Guizhou. The concentration of capacity among leading enterprises is relatively high. Key enterprises are as follows:

Hubei Xiangyun: Capacity of 2.2 million tons, one of the industry leaders.

Hubei New Yangfeng: Capacity of 2 million tons, a regional leader with a complete industrial chain.

Sichuan Lomon: Capacity of 1 million tons, covering both agricultural and industrial grade products.

Guizhou KaiPhos (Guizhou Chemical Industry Group): Capacity of 800,000 tons, relying on high-quality phosphate rock resources with a complete industrial chain.

Anhui Sierte: Capacity of 750,000 tons, focusing on the production and sales of phosphate and compound fertilizers.

Yunnan Yuntianhua: Capacity of 700,000 tons, with strong phosphorus resource reserves and a high proportion of high-end products.

National Policies Related to Phosphorus and Ammonium

Supply Guarantee and Price Stabilization Policy: In May 2025, the China Phosphate and Compound Fertilizer Industry Association officially released the guiding price for MAP. The core goal is to guarantee supply and stabilize prices, guiding the domestic market price to run smoothly and avoiding large fluctuations.

Capacity Regulation Policy: Since 2016, the State Council, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and other departments have explicitly strictly controlled new capacity in surplus industries such as phosphorus and ammonium, implementing equal or reduced substitution for advanced process renovation projects to promote industry capacity optimization.

Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Policy: The "Implementation Guide for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction Transformation and Upgrading in Key Areas of High Energy Consumption Industries" published in 2022 included MAP in the key areas of energy conservation and carbon reduction, promoting energy efficiency improvement in enterprises and the elimination of backward capacity. The 2023 edition of the energy efficiency benchmark policy further clarified the energy consumption standards for the MAP industry, forcing a green transformation of the industry.

Policy for Efficient and High-Value Utilization of Phosphorus Resources: The "Implementation Plan for Promoting Efficient and High-Value Utilization of Phosphorus Resources" issued in 2024 proposed strictly controlling new capacity for phosphorus and ammonium, ensuring the supply and stabilizing prices of phosphate fertilizers, and promoting the transformation of the industry towards refinement and high value-added directions.

Industry analysis indicates that this guiding price increase slightly alleviates the cost pressure on production enterprises, but it is difficult for the overall industry loss pattern to reverse quickly due to difficulties in securing parity-priced raw materials. The rise in the guiding price simultaneously suppresses the procurement enthusiasm of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises. Downstream purchasing is cautious, and the difficulty for traders to operate increases. Even if manufacturers secretly lower prices for promotion, market circulation remains sluggish. Synthesizing the supply, demand, and cost environment, the domestic MAP market may mainly experience steady and narrow-range fluctuations in the short term, and the factory listed guiding prices will gradually converge with actual market transaction prices.