SunSirs: The Bisphenol A Market Experienced Volatile Downward Movement in May, with Fundamentals Continuing to Weaken

Throughout May 2025, the domestic spot market for Bisphenol A experienced a volatile downward trend; the price center of gravity continued to shift lower, resulting in a significant monthly decline. According to data from SunSirs, prices in the East China market peaked at 9,730 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month before falling to 9,000 RMB/ton by month-end—a cumulative drop of 7.09% over the entire month. Overall market sentiment remained bearish, and the absence of positive fundamentals meant that the market lacked the necessary support for a rebound or a recovery in prices.

Supply remains loose, with product availability continuing to be abundant. Following the May Day holiday, most production units that had undergone maintenance or operated at reduced loads resumed operations in unison; consequently, the industry's average operating rate has remained above 80%—a 7-percentage-point increase from April—leading to a steady rise in spot market availability. During the month, the scale and duration of maintenance activities at the few units undergoing them were relatively minor, proving insufficient to offset the ample overall supply. Furthermore, although export volumes saw a significant month-on-month increase, the low baseline meant this growth was unable to effectively absorb domestic inventories, leaving manufacturers and traders facing persistently high pressure to move their stock.

Downstream demand remains sluggish, limited solely to essential replenishment. The simultaneous slump in the two core downstream sectors has emerged as the primary catalyst for the market downturn:

1. PC Industry: Downstream terminal orders across the electronics and automotive sectors are insufficient; the PC market itself is weakening, manufacturers are incurring production losses, and raw material procurement is being conducted with extreme caution, with no inclination toward proactive inventory replenishment. 2. Epoxy Resins: The construction materials, wind power, and coatings sectors have entered their traditional off-season; new orders are scarce, downstream factories continue to deplete their existing inventories, and there is a complete lack of takers for high-priced raw materials. Throughout May, downstream players consistently limited their purchasing to small-volume, essential-need orders; consequently, the market lacked the support of concentrated inventory restocking, leaving it entirely devoid of the demand-driven momentum required for an upward trend.

Raw material costs provided insufficient support. Throughout the month, prices for upstream phenol and acetone trended downward overall—experiencing only a brief, minor rebound in mid-month—with the average monthly price of phenol falling 11.8% month-on-month, and acetone plummeting 8.3%. The continued decline in raw material prices further compressed Bisphenol A production costs, widening the margin for manufacturers to offer price concessions; consequently, the cost side was unable to provide effective underlying support for spot market prices.

According to SunSirs, the fundamentals for Bisphenol A (BPA) show no clear signs of recovery in June; the market is expected to continue fluctuating at low levels with a weak bias, making any significant rebound unlikely. 1. Supply Side: Industry operating rates remain high; furthermore, with Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's phenol-ketone unit nearing commissioning, the supply of upstream raw materials is set to increase further, maintaining the current landscape of ample supply. 2. Demand Side: The downstream sector remains in its traditional off-season; demand for Polycarbonate (PC) and epoxy resins is unlikely to recover rapidly, and end-user orders remain sluggish. 3. Cost Side: Inventories of benzene are accumulating, while phenol and acetone prices are highly likely to remain weak, leaving cost-side support tenuous. Overall, while the downside potential for BPA in the coming month is limited, resistance to a rebound remains substantial; the market is highly likely to trade sideways at low levels. Key factors to watch include concentrated restocking activities in the downstream sector, as well as price fluctuations in upstream benzene and crude oil.

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