Iran's crude oil and condensate exports hit a six-year low in May

According to statistics from two major shipping data analytics firms, Vortexa and Kpler, affected by the deterioration of the geopolitical situation in the Strait of Hormuz and the implementation of U.S.-led maritime blockades, Iran's crude oil and condensate exports plummeted in May 2026. Industry statistics diverged: Vortexa calculated Iran's daily oil exports in May at only 209,000 barrels, while Kpler's estimate was slightly higher at 260,000 barrels per day; both figures represent the lowest levels in six years since late 2019.

From a month-on-month perspective, export volumes in May saw a precipitous decline compared to 1.34 million barrels per day in April and nearly 1.9 million barrels per day in March. The core trigger for this significant drop in exports is the blockade and control measures implemented by the U.S. Navy around the Strait of Hormuz. Shipping risks in the region have surged, prompting a large number of shipowners and marine insurance institutions to withdraw from relevant routes for risk avoidance. Consequently, a large volume of oil tankers awaiting loading in the Gulf region have been forced to remain stranded, causing a widespread interruption in Iran's crude oil loading operations.

Current Iranian oil export levels have fallen below the lows seen following previous U.S. maximum pressure sanctions, highlighting that the suppression of Iran's energy sales by this round of geopolitical conflict has surpassed most periods in the past six years. In the short term, a significant improvement in the outflow of Iranian crude oil supplies is unlikely.