The final batch of Middle East oil tankers is about to arrive in port as a global crude oil shortage crisis looms.

The Iran–US conflict continues to disrupt the world's main energy arteries. As the last pre-war oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz to Asia arrive at ports one after another, the global crude supply shortfall is set to become apparent and market fears of worsening shortages have surged sharply.

Transportation window closes — shortage crisis imminent

It typically takes about 40 days for Middle East crude to reach Asia, which means the last tankers that passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the conflict began on February 28 will arrive at refineries in the coming days. After that, new crude supplies will face serious disruption, analysts widely warn that the crude shortage crisis will further deteriorate.

Data show that Asia relies on Middle East imports for about 80% of its crude. Most crude destined for Asia before the conflict stopped being delivered around April 1; only a cargo of Iraqi crude is expected to reach Malaysia this week. JPMorgan reported that the last batch of pre-war crude bound for Africa and Asia had all arrived by April 10.

Energy consultancy Energy Aspects reports that in the first two weeks of April, excluding Iranian crude, the volume of crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz to Asia fell to about 4.0 million barrels per day, far below the normal 13.4 million barrels per day. The Strait of Hormuz has in effect been “closed”, leaving large volumes of crude stranded in the Gulf and significantly raising the risk for vessels entering ports to load.

Spot–futures divergence intensifies — Brent spot nears $149

London exchange data show the Brent benchmark Forties Blend spot price surged to nearly $149/barrel, surpassing the previous $147/barrel high and trading at roughly a $50 premium to futures. Over the same period Brent futures fell 2.3% to $97/barrel.

IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that spot and futures prices will soon reconverge, fully reflecting the intensity of the supply shock caused by the conflict.

Europe and the US set to feel spillover from Asian shortages

Because Asian refiners are aggressively buying US WTI, Energy Aspects analyst Nic Dyer said that about a month from now, as those cargoes leave the US, supply tightness will spread to Europe and the US and European and US refineries may be forced to cut runs to cope with crude shortages.

Currently, refineries across Europe and Asia are locked in fierce competition for feedstock, directly pushing spot prices to record highs and increasing sustained pressure on the global crude supply system. Many Asian countries have entered energy emergency mode and, while releasing strategic crude reserves, are accelerating purchases of US crude.

Triple shock heightens poverty risk

A UNDP report released on Monday warned that, due to the triple impact of energy supply risks, rising food prices and an economic downturn triggered by the Iran–US conflict, as many as 32.5 million people worldwide could be at risk of falling into poverty.